Calibration, Not Certainty
Published on: 10/09/2026
The forecasters who beat the CIA weren't more certain than the analysts -- they were better calibrated. Certainty was never the actual requirement.

The forecasters who beat the CIA weren't more certain than the analysts -- they were better calibrated. Certainty was never the actual requirement.

A loop repeated long enough stops being something you do and becomes something you think you are -- and knowing that doesn't automatically set you free.

The reflexes running your adult rooms started as real defenses against a real threat. They persist because nobody ever ended the contract.

An audit of the 50 best-selling self-help books found only 48% used evidence-based techniques. The market rewards what reads well, not what works.